Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 20.016412 24.116581 28.642091 33.980387 40.076916 46.793809 54.724388
2025-07-13 14.444004 19.894626 26.531559 35.086005 45.688997 58.265378 74.164638
2025-07-20 11.252735 17.251888 25.138153 35.998860 50.276145 68.100063 91.693553
2025-07-27 9.235122 15.536456 24.375553 37.227504 54.931970 77.929052 109.450133
2025-08-03 7.685056 14.091540 23.624326 38.165402 59.020666 87.032223 126.551512
2025-08-10 6.148012 12.317745 22.061217 37.639658 60.863776 93.055401 139.704505
2025-08-17 5.145556 11.187386 21.256604 38.037775 63.904330 100.730390 155.304987
2025-08-24 4.240340 10.024583 20.200435 37.863884 65.979594 107.035252 169.168386
2025-08-31 3.336899 8.654085 18.572804 36.546695 66.125583 110.449963 178.965260
2025-09-07 2.868463 8.040947 18.166664 37.161879 69.255484 118.328228 195.432414
2025-09-14 2.308162 7.091588 16.992428 36.306735 69.908520 122.437507 206.450262
2025-09-21 2.028630 6.713829 16.850705 37.236984 73.508241 131.169400 224.627674
2025-09-28 1.485774 5.566378 15.055696 35.086586 71.996749 132.211441 231.815962
2025-10-05 1.288789 5.273174 15.013493 36.258194 76.326456 142.810800 254.249009
2025-10-12 1.106275 4.959508 14.869005 37.197674 80.282063 152.956987 276.331938
2025-10-19 0.969066 4.736651 14.891285 38.458653 84.872339 164.314966 300.700599
2025-10-26 0.836304 4.478242 14.781431 39.420956 88.949452 174.960906 324.266080
2025-11-02 0.661634 3.991355 14.010198 38.881555 90.149334 180.765114 340.178933
2025-11-09 0.552579 3.702628 13.694934 39.290019 93.158463 189.755736 361.548903
2025-11-16 0.444052 3.355565 13.150319 39.111611 94.987295 196.738276 379.791478
2025-11-23 0.327328 2.887815 12.155116 37.760069 94.364552 199.339061 390.763731
2025-11-30 0.275524 2.715071 12.001900 38.391329 97.780564 209.253066 414.338691
2025-12-07 0.206267 2.383028 11.271716 37.513823 98.004729 213.379689 428.152867